College

The slate on one map, three ways — kickoff temperature, the Weather Football Index, and any active National Weather Service products at the stadium sites. Every dot is that game's own page: the forecast, how it has moved since eight days out, and the verification once it's played.

Kickoff temperature download the PNG

Weather Football Index download the PNG

Active NWS hazards download the PNG

Every FBS game inside the supported forecast horizon, scored from NBM/NDFD domestically and exact HRES points internationally (GDPS fallback) — the same Weather Football Index the 2001–2025 college archive is graded with, pointed forward instead of back. Each game is scored over the three hours from kickoff, at the stadium's own clock.

Scorebug pages — colours, lines & forecasts: Top 25 · SEC · Big Ten · Big 12 · ACC · Pac-12 · American · Mountain West · MAC · Sun Belt · Conference USA · Independents

Domes are scored, not skipped: the index drops a controlled building to near zero, which is the honest answer rather than a blank row. For scale, FBS games that graded notable on observed weather averaged 48.8 points against 55.1 in benign conditions, across 18,378 games since 2001.

Every game's forecast is captured at standard leads from T-8 days to kickoff and never revised afterward — the one dataset that cannot be rebuilt later, and the honest way to ask whether game-day weather was knowable in advance. 185 games tracked · 732 snapshots · 27 settled.

For a decade the College Football Playoff was weather-proof — semifinals and the title game staged in domes and Sunbelt bowls. Then the 2024 move to a 12-team bracket put the first round on campus, and December cold entered the Playoff for the first time. Higher seeds host — so the cold-weather blue bloods got a home-weather edge that never existed.

Every FBS conference by the weather it plays in — the average November–December temperature across its venues, from the domes-and-Dixie leagues to the December-cold North.

Pick a visitor and a host — the big number is the late-season shock: what the visitor's program is acclimated to vs. what the host's stadium delivers in December.

The climate gap above is the setup; here's the payoff. Every FBS game scored with the Weather Football Index from observed station weather — and warm-climate programs (home ≥58°F) genuinely fold in the cold: 303 games, 44% wins, just 25.9 points per game. The programs it's burned worst:

Cold = game-time ≤40°F, measured at the ASOS station nearest the stadium. Min 4 cold games.

The same question the NFL methodology asks, asked of college football: as the Weather Football Index rises, does scoring actually fall? Every FBS home game since 2001 is scored on full observed inputs — gust, humidity and present weather from the station nearest the stadium, 18,908 games, a median of 5.9 miles away — and graded by the same code the NFL archive uses, so a college score and a professional one are the same measurement.

Outdoor games only; a band needs 20 games to appear, because an average of four is a curiosity rather than a measurement. College football scores more than the NFL in every band — the drop across the range is what to read, not the level.

The market question the NFL edge page asks, put to the college archive: as the Weather Football Index rises, do games land under the closing total more often than the 52.4% break-even? In college, emphatically — games at WFI ≥ 40 went under 64.6% of the time (364 lined games, break-even 52.4%).

Outdoor games with a closing total — the median across books (cfbfastR, 2006–2025). Pushes excluded; a band needs 20 lined games to appear. A historical frequency, not betting advice.

Browse all 25 college seasons, game by game →