For a decade the College Football Playoff was weather-proof — semifinals and the title game staged in domes and Sunbelt bowls. Then the 2024 move to a 12-team bracket put the first round on campus, and December cold entered the Playoff for the first time. Higher seeds host — so the cold-weather blue bloods got a home-weather edge that never existed.

Every FBS conference by the weather it plays in — the average November–December temperature across its venues, from the domes-and-Dixie leagues to the December-cold North.

Pick a visitor and a host — the big number is the late-season shock: what the visitor's program is acclimated to vs. what the host's stadium delivers in December.

The climate gap above is the setup; here's the payoff. Every FBS game scored with the Weather Football Index from real reanalysis weather — and warm-climate programs (home ≥58°F) genuinely fold in the cold: —. The programs it's burned worst:

Cold = game-time ≤40°F (ERA5-Land reanalysis). Min 4 cold games. Historical WFI is temp+wind only.