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SMU at Florida State

Week 1 · September 7, 2026 · every hour, the forecast is re-scored and the record kept.

19SMUSMU
Mon, Sep 7 · 7:30 PM EDTESPN
SMU -3 · O/U 53.5
Kalshi total 53.2 · FSU win 42% 4k vol
Doak Campbell StadiumTallahassee, FL

The Forecast at Kickoff

scored by the same engine as every game since 2001
WFI 10range 0–25negligible

Precipitation-driven impact — 3 mph wind, gusts 10, 78°F, rain 0.03 in/hr.

Wind0
Precip10
Cold0
Heat0
Temperature
78°F
Feels like
78°F
Wind
3 mph
Gusts
10 mph
Humidity
93%
Precip
0.028 in/hr
Rain chance
83% ≥0.1" 72% ≥0.25" 58%

NBM blend at the stadium point + NDFD forecaster precip

The Game Window, Hour by Hour

stadium point, local clock; kickoff row marked
LocalTempWind mphGustPrecip in/hr
8 pm78°3100.03
11 pm76°39

How the Forecast Has Moved

one immutable snapshot per lead — recorded, never revised
020408 days: WFI 65 days: WFI 63 days: WFI 148d5d3d
LeadWFITempWind mphPrecip in/hrTotal
8 days outWFI 679°5 g130.0153.5
5 days outWFI 678°3 g90.0152.5
3 days outWFI 1479°4 g100.0653.5

The forecast moved 8 WFI points as kickoff neared. Snapshots are captured hourly and locked at each lead bucket; this record cannot be rewritten after the fact.

The Building

where this one is played
Venue
Doak Campbell Stadium
Location
Tallahassee, FL
Elevation
64 ft
Roof
open air

Full point forecast — every element, hour by hour — at Forecast Points.

What Weather Like This Does to Scoring

FBS games 2001–2025, measured at the nearest station
Forecast bandGamesAvg points
negligible14,87855.1 ←
minor2,99953.2
notable47448.8
high2747.7