WFI 16negligible91°F · wind 10 g18 mph · dry
Wind-driven impact — 10 mph wind, gusts 18, 91°F.
Every game involving an AP Top 25 team over the next eleven days — 45 of them — with the posted line, kickoff, stadium, and the forecast weather impact on each.
Weeks 1–2 · 45 games · forecasts off NBM run 20260904T06:00Z
Friday, September 4
WFI 8negligible67°F · wind 9 g16 mph · dry
Wind-driven impact — 9 mph wind, gusts 16, 67°F.
Fresno StateFRES
WFI 0negligible71°F · wind 5 g12 mph · dry
Benign conditions; weather is a non-factor.
Saturday, September 5
WFI 8range 3–13negligible93°F · wind 3 g8 mph · dry · rain chance 15%
Heat-driven impact — 3 mph wind, gusts 8, 93°F.
Oregon StateORST
WFI 11range 4–23negligible89°F · wind 3 g6 mph · dry · rain chance 51% (soaking 20%)
Heat-driven impact — 3 mph wind, gusts 6, 89°F, rain 0.00 in/hr.
North TexasUNT
WFI 8range 1–16negligible89°F · wind 5 g11 mph · dry · rain chance 11%
Heat-driven impact — 5 mph wind, gusts 11, 89°F, rain 0.00 in/hr.
Ball StateBALL
WFI 8range 3–17negligible82°F · wind 6 g12 mph · rain 0.009 in/hr · rain chance 39%
Precipitation-driven impact — 6 mph wind, gusts 12, 82°F, rain 0.01 in/hr.
Tennessee StateTNST
WFI 13range 5–13negligible96°F · wind 4 g8 mph · rain 0.007 in/hr · rain chance 9%
Heat-driven impact — 3 mph wind, gusts 8, 96°F, rain 0.01 in/hr.
Boise StateBOIS
WFI 0negligible71°F · wind 4 g8 mph · dry
Benign conditions; weather is a non-factor.
MarshallMRSH
WFI 0negligible76°F · wind 5 g10 mph · dry · rain chance 6%
Benign conditions; weather is a non-factor.
FurmanFUR
WFI 9range 1–17negligible92°F · wind 3 g7 mph · dry · rain chance 30%
Heat-driven impact — 3 mph wind, gusts 7, 91°F, rain 0.00 in/hr.
Texas StateTXST
WFI 8negligible96°F · wind 5 g12 mph · dry · rain chance 10%
Heat-driven impact — 5 mph wind, gusts 12, 96°F.
WFI 8negligible89°F · wind 6 g8 mph · dry
Heat-driven impact — 6 mph wind, gusts 8, 89°F.
Missouri StateMOST
WFI 7range 0–19negligible85°F · wind 5 g9 mph · dry · rain chance 30%
Heat-driven impact — 5 mph wind, gusts 9, 85°F, rain 0.00 in/hr.
Abilene ChristianACU
WFI 12negligible93°F · wind 10 g16 mph · dry
Wind-driven impact — 10 mph wind, gusts 16, 93°F.
WFI 7range 0–21negligible81°F · wind 1 g4 mph · rain 0.013 in/hr · rain chance 54% (soaking 20%)
Precipitation-driven impact — 1 mph wind, gusts 4, 81°F, rain 0.01 in/hr.
WFI 3negligible69°F · wind 6 g14 mph · dry · rain chance 6%
Benign conditions; weather is a non-factor.
Utah TechUTU
WFI 0negligible79°F · wind 5 g13 mph · dry
Benign conditions; weather is a non-factor.
Sunday, September 6
WFI 4negligible71°F · wind 7 g10 mph · dry
Wind-driven impact — 7 mph wind, gusts 10, 71°F.
WisconsinWIS
WFI 0negligible72°F · wind 3 g7 mph · dry
Benign conditions; weather is a non-factor.
WFI 12negligible88°F · wind 9 g14 mph · dry
Wind-driven impact — 9 mph wind, gusts 14, 88°F.
Monday, September 7
WFI 6range 0–24negligible79°F · wind 3 g10 mph · rain 0.01 in/hr · rain chance 78% (soaking 52%)
Precipitation-driven impact — 3 mph wind, gusts 10, 79°F, rain 0.01 in/hr.
Thursday, September 10
Florida A&MFAMU
WFI 2negligible82°F · wind 4 g7 mph · dry · rain chance 10%
Benign conditions; weather is a non-factor.
Friday, September 11
VillanovaVILL
WFI 8negligible80°F · wind 9 g11 mph · dry · rain chance 7%
Wind-driven impact — 9 mph wind, gusts 11, 80°F.
WFI 1negligible86°F · wind 5 g9 mph · dry · rain chance 5%
Benign conditions; weather is a non-factor.
Saturday, September 12
HowardHOW
WFI 1negligible82°F · wind 5 g10 mph · dry · rain chance 6%
Benign conditions; weather is a non-factor.
WFI 9negligible74°F · wind 9 g18 mph · dry · rain chance 8%
Wind-driven impact — 9 mph wind, gusts 18, 74°F.
Oklahoma StateOKST
WFI 20range 16–24minor92°F · wind 12 g20 mph · dry · rain chance 7%
Wind-driven impact — 12 mph wind, gusts 20, 92°F.
TempleTEM
WFI 2negligible76°F · wind 6 g13 mph · dry · rain chance 6%
Benign conditions; weather is a non-factor.
WFI 13range 10–20negligible92°F · wind 7 g12 mph · dry · rain chance 11%
Heat-driven impact — 7 mph wind, gusts 13, 92°F.
WFI 2range 0–14negligible90°F · wind 5 g10 mph · dry · rain chance 17%
Benign conditions; weather is a non-factor.
WFI 1negligible71°F · wind 6 g10 mph · dry · rain chance 16%
Benign conditions; weather is a non-factor.
WFI 2range 2–10negligible82°F · wind 6 g10 mph · dry · rain chance 11%
Benign conditions; weather is a non-factor.
RiceRICE
WFI 6negligible76°F · wind 7 g16 mph · dry · rain chance 9%
Wind-driven impact — 7 mph wind, gusts 16, 76°F.
Utah StateUSU
WFI 6negligible62°F · wind 5 g8 mph · rain 0.01 in/hr · rain chance 19%
Precipitation-driven impact — 5 mph wind, gusts 8, 62°F, rain 0.01 in/hr.
UC DavisUCD
WFI 18negligible96°F · wind 10 g16 mph · dry · rain chance 8%
Wind-driven impact — 10 mph wind, gusts 16, 96°F.
WFI 2range 2–12negligible84°F · wind 6 g11 mph · dry · rain chance 18%
Benign conditions; weather is a non-factor.
SouthernSOU
WFI 15range 11–30negligible88°F · wind 9 g14 mph · dry · rain chance 19%
Wind-driven impact — 9 mph wind, gusts 14, 88°F.
Iowa StateISU
WFI 8range 8–18negligible79°F · wind 8 g11 mph · dry · rain chance 15%
Wind-driven impact — 8 mph wind, gusts 11, 79°F.
WFI 4range 0–22negligible86°F · wind 3 g6 mph · dry · rain chance 34%
Heat-driven impact — 3 mph wind, gusts 6, 86°F.
Oregon StateORST
WFI 2range 2–10negligible71°F · wind 6 g13 mph · dry · rain chance 24%
Benign conditions; weather is a non-factor.
WFI 12range 7–15negligible93°F · wind 8 g17 mph · dry · rain chance 6%
Wind-driven impact — 8 mph wind, gusts 17, 93°F.
WFI 0negligible86°F · wind 3 g9 mph · dry · rain chance 11%
Benign conditions; weather is a non-factor.
WFI 0negligible72°F · wind 4 g11 mph · dry · rain chance 17%
Benign conditions; weather is a non-factor.
WFI 7negligible69°F · wind 8 g12 mph · dry
Wind-driven impact — 8 mph wind, gusts 13, 69°F.
Reading the weather chip: the Weather Football Index
scores forecast conditions 0–100 for football impact —
0–19 negligible,
20–39 minor,
40–59 notable,
60–79 high,
80+ extreme.
Domes are scored, not skipped: the roof factor takes them to near zero.
Rain chances are the NBM ensemble's probability of measurable precipitation in the
6-hour window covering kickoff (a "soaking" is ≥0.25"), which says what a single
blended rate cannot — a 79% storm day can still average out to a dry-looking number.
Lines are the book's posted numbers via ESPN; the Kalshi row is the implied total and win price from that game's traded strike ladder on the regulated exchange, shown only while fresh. Both update through the week.
See the methodology.