The Weather Football Index is built only from weather — it never sees the point spread. So comparing the actual game total to the closing Vegas total, bucketed by WFI, is a clean test of whether the market prices weather correctly. If it did, games would land under the total about half the time in every bucket. They don't: the under rate climbs with the index.
In plain terms: when the Weather Football Index flags a game as high-impact, the total has come in under the market well above the ~52.4% break-even needed to beat standard −110 juice. The market consistently sets totals too high for bad-weather games — it under-adjusts for what wind and cold do to scoring.
NFL outdoor games with a closing total · 1999-2025 · break-even 52.4%
Under Rate by Weather Band
red line = 52.4% break-evenThe Line vs Reality
| Weather Band | Games | Avg WFI | Vegas Total | Actual | Actual − Line | Under % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| negligible | 4067 | 6.6 | 43.1 | 44.2 | +1.05 | 49.8% |
| minor | 1113 | 27.1 | 42.4 | 41.5 | -0.93 | 55.3% |
| notable | 254 | 46.0 | 41.2 | 40.3 | -0.9 | 54.0% |
| high | 22 | 66.2 | 38.3 | 31.3 | -7.0 | 66.7% |
| extreme | 5 | 84.0 | 35.2 | 30.4 | -4.8 | 80.0% |
Biggest Misses
high-WFI games that cratered the total| Matchup | Stadium | °F | Wind | WFI | Total | Line | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL @ PHI | Lincoln Financial Field | 19 | 17 | 52 | 6 | 41.0 | -35.0 |
| BUF @ GB | Lambeau Field | 27 | 25 | 63 | 10 | 43.5 | -33.5 |
| CHI @ GB | Lambeau Field | 19 | 14 | 45 | 13 | 43.5 | -30.5 |
| PIT @ NYJ | Giants Stadium | 30 | 15 | 64 | 6 | 36.0 | -30.0 |
| SF @ WAS | FedExField | 55 | 12 | 49 | 9 | 39.0 | -30.0 |
| HOU @ CLE | FirstEnergy Stadium | 59 | 25 | 45 | 17 | 46.0 | -29.0 |
| BUF @ CLE | Cleveland Browns Stadium | 30 | 32 | 66 | 8 | 36.5 | -28.5 |
| PIT @ CLE | Cleveland Browns Stadium | 80 | 40 | 45 | 16 | 43.5 | -27.5 |
| SD @ CLE | Cleveland Browns Stadium | 44 | 19 | 60 | 13 | 40.5 | -27.5 |
| LV @ CLE | FirstEnergy Stadium | 49 | 35 | 45 | 22 | 48.0 | -26.0 |
| STL @ PHI | Veterans Stadium | 34 | 23 | 49 | 13 | 38.0 | -25.0 |
| NYJ @ SEA | Qwest Field | 31 | 11 | 41 | 16 | 41.0 | -25.0 |
The Prop Signal — Yards on the Ground vs Through the Air
by windTotals aren't the only market weather moves. Wind reallocates yards from the air to the ground — which is exactly what team-yardage and QB passing props price. Here's the per-team-game shift by wind speed, with the yardage delta vs a calm day.
A 22+ mph wind has historically cost teams 39 passing yards while adding yards on the ground. Completion rate and yards-per-attempt fall with it — the deep ball is the first casualty. Read the full ladder below.
| Wind | Pass Yds/tm | vs Calm | Rush Yds/tm | vs Calm | Pass Att | Comp% | Y/Att | Rush Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calm (0–8) | 243.2 | 0.0 | 104.6 | 0.0 | 39.9 | 53.4% | 6.09 | 30.1% |
| Breezy (8–15) | 236.4 | -6.8 | 104.2 | -0.4 | 39.6 | 52.9% | 5.97 | 30.6% |
| Windy (15–22) | 218.7 | -24.5 | 107.6 | +3.0 | 38.9 | 51.0% | 5.63 | 33.0% |
| Gale (22+) | 204.2 | -39.0 | 117.3 | +12.7 | 36.8 | 49.7% | 5.55 | 36.5% |
Per-team-game, outdoor NFL games. We don't yet carry historical prop lines (only game totals), so this is the physical signal that informs prop bets — not a book-vs-reality edge like the totals above.
Quarterbacks in the Wind
The team signal hides the individual one: some quarterbacks are wind-proof, others crater. Each QB's average passing yards in calm (≤10 mph) vs windy (≥15 mph) games — the individual passing-prop angle.
| Quarterback | Calm Pass | Windy Pass | Δ Yds | Calm YPA | Windy YPA | Deep/g | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston TB | 276.3 | 215.0 | -61.3 | 7.69 | 7.08 | 3.12→2.62 | 48/8 |
| Eli Manning NYG | 252.8 | 195.3 | -57.4 | 7.12 | 6.11 | 3.15→2.09 | 145/22 |
| Dak Prescott DAL | 258.2 | 208.0 | -50.2 | 7.18 | 5.92 | 3.08→2.0 | 36/7 |
| Blake Bortles JAX | 249.7 | 202.3 | -47.4 | 6.86 | 6.01 | 3.38→2.83 | 53/6 |
| Ben Roethlisberger PIT | 271.7 | 224.9 | -46.7 | 7.51 | 6.59 | 3.42→2.69 | 157/26 |
| Patrick Mahomes KC | 297.5 | 252.5 | -45.0 | 7.86 | 7.59 | 3.73→3.64 | 67/14 |
| Trent Edwards BUF | 193.1 | 152.1 | -41.0 | 6.78 | 5.94 | 2.35→2.12 | 20/8 |
| Carson Wentz PHI | 252.3 | 217.5 | -34.8 | 7.01 | 6.27 | 3.04→2.31 | 45/13 |
| Matt Cassel KC | 208.2 | 173.4 | -34.8 | 6.43 | 6.81 | 2.56→2.27 | 43/11 |
| Jay Cutler CHI | 237.5 | 204.2 | -33.3 | 7.06 | 7.03 | 2.75→2.88 | 81/17 |
| Russell Wilson SEA | 236.3 | 204.2 | -32.1 | 7.87 | 7.1 | 3.21→3.5 | 138/12 |
| Baker Mayfield CLE | 245.7 | 214.1 | -31.6 | 7.59 | 6.81 | 3.48→2.64 | 60/11 |
| Peyton Manning DEN | 290.0 | 258.5 | -31.5 | 7.88 | 6.49 | 3.71→3.0 | 75/12 |
| Tom Brady NE | 281.2 | 250.3 | -30.9 | 7.38 | 7.04 | 3.42→3.07 | 175/27 |
| Mark Sanchez NYJ | 206.1 | 177.3 | -28.8 | 6.53 | 5.86 | 2.5→2.0 | 50/11 |
Min 10 calm & 6 windy games, 2006–2024. Deep/g = completions of 20+ air yards per game (calm→windy). Note: a dome team's QB plays "calm" indoors and "windy" only on the road, so some split reflects venue as much as skill — read with the sample size.
Running Backs in the Cold
The flip side of the air-to-ground shift: cold, wind and snow funnel offenses to the run, and the workhorse gets fed. It's a volume story — watch the carries, not just the yards, for rushing props. Each back's warm (≥50°F) vs cold (≤35°F) averages.
| Running Back | Warm Rush | Cold Rush | Δ Yds | Warm Car | Cold Car | Δ Car | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray TEN | 69.2 | 124.6 | +55.4 | 16.5 | 21.4 | +4.9 | 43/5 |
| Knowshon Moreno DEN | 59.1 | 104.5 | +45.4 | 14.8 | 20.0 | +5.2 | 37/6 |
| Le'Veon Bell PIT | 70.2 | 110.2 | +40.1 | 17.0 | 22.8 | +5.9 | 46/13 |
| Saquon Barkley NYG | 80.4 | 117.0 | +36.6 | 17.5 | 20.3 | +2.8 | 34/7 |
| Jamaal Charles KC | 70.7 | 105.0 | +34.3 | 14.6 | 15.2 | +0.6 | 50/12 |
| Dion Lewis NE | 50.3 | 84.0 | +33.7 | 11.2 | 19.2 | +8.0 | 19/5 |
| Jonathan Stewart CAR | 55.0 | 88.4 | +33.4 | 13.3 | 16.0 | +2.7 | 74/5 |
| C.J. Anderson DEN | 63.4 | 94.8 | +31.4 | 15.5 | 17.2 | +1.7 | 31/5 |
| Jordan Howard CHI | 67.7 | 98.1 | +30.4 | 15.6 | 20.9 | +5.3 | 30/7 |
| Sony Michel NE | 64.3 | 92.8 | +28.5 | 15.2 | 20.8 | +5.6 | 20/5 |
| Fred Jackson BUF | 59.3 | 86.7 | +27.4 | 13.3 | 15.0 | +1.7 | 50/7 |
| C.J. Spiller BUF | 53.8 | 76.4 | +22.6 | 11.8 | 16.0 | +4.2 | 31/5 |
| Reggie Bush MIA | 57.2 | 78.4 | +21.2 | 13.3 | 14.2 | +0.9 | 38/5 |
| Shaun Alexander SEA | 66.2 | 87.0 | +20.8 | 21.0 | 21.8 | +0.8 | 11/6 |
| Eddie Lacy GB | 59.4 | 79.3 | +19.9 | 14.9 | 18.5 | +3.6 | 27/13 |
Min 8 warm & 5 cold games, 2006–2024. Cold-weather teams naturally run more, so their backs skew high here — the volume swing is the signal for over/under on carries and rush yards.
Receivers in the Wind
When the quarterback throws for less, the yards come out of someone's receiving line. Each pass-catcher's average receiving yards in calm vs windy games — the WR/TE prop read.
| Pass-catcher | Calm Rec | Windy Rec | Δ Yds | Calm Tgt | Windy Tgt | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Patrick WR · DEN | 57.2 | 19.6 | -37.6 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 23/7 |
| Elijah Moore WR · CLE | 43.6 | 13.7 | -29.9 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 20/7 |
| Rob Gronkowski TE · NE | 73.4 | 45.5 | -28.0 | 7.8 | 6.4 | 80/13 |
| Jimmy Graham TE · SEA | 54.9 | 27.3 | -27.6 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 77/6 |
| Victor Cruz WR · NYG | 78.3 | 52.5 | -25.8 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 42/6 |
| Terry McLaurin WR · WAS | 68.0 | 44.0 | -24.0 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 55/6 |
| Cole Kmet TE · CHI | 47.9 | 24.3 | -23.6 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 23/7 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. WR · NYG | 81.0 | 59.3 | -21.7 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 68/11 |
| Kyle Rudolph TE · MIN | 40.4 | 19.3 | -21.1 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 37/6 |
| Kendall Wright WR · TEN | 52.6 | 31.9 | -20.7 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 48/8 |
| Dustin Keller TE · NYJ | 49.6 | 29.0 | -20.6 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 34/6 |
| Greg Olsen TE · CAR | 54.8 | 34.4 | -20.4 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 96/13 |
| Andre Johnson WR · HOU | 70.9 | 50.6 | -20.3 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 30/8 |
| Anquan Boldin WR · BAL | 63.8 | 44.1 | -19.7 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 78/7 |
| Jordan Matthews TE · PHI | 52.7 | 34.6 | -18.1 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 35/7 |
The Career Weather Tax
it compoundsA single windy game costs yards; a career spent in the wind costs a stat line. Estimated lifetime yards a player left on the field in their windy (≥15 mph) games — measured against their own calm-weather rate. It's the weather signal, filtered all the way down to career totals.
Passing yards taxed
| Quarterback | Yards Lost | Windy Gms |
|---|
Receiving yards taxed
| Pass-catcher | Yards Lost | Windy Gms |
|---|
Estimated: (a player's calm per-game average − windy average) × their windy games. It counts only their windiest games (≥15 mph), so a full "if every game were calm" figure would be larger. Directional — windy games skew toward road trips and tougher defenses.