The Weather Football Index is built only from weather — it never sees the point spread. So comparing the actual game total to the closing Vegas total, bucketed by WFI, is a clean test of whether the market prices weather correctly. If it did, games would land under the total about half the time in every bucket. They don't: the under rate climbs with the index.

Totals aren't the only market weather moves. Wind reallocates yards from the air to the ground — which is exactly what team-yardage and QB passing props price. Here's the per-team-game shift by wind speed, with the yardage delta vs a calm day.

Per-team-game, outdoor NFL games. We don't yet carry historical prop lines (only game totals), so this is the physical signal that informs prop bets — not a book-vs-reality edge like the totals above.

The team signal hides the individual one: some quarterbacks are wind-proof, others crater. Each QB's average passing yards in calm (≤10 mph) vs windy (≥15 mph) games — the individual passing-prop angle.

Min 10 calm & 6 windy games, 2006–2024. Deep/g = completions of 20+ air yards per game (calm→windy). Note: a dome team's QB plays "calm" indoors and "windy" only on the road, so some split reflects venue as much as skill — read with the sample size.

The flip side of the air-to-ground shift: cold, wind and snow funnel offenses to the run, and the workhorse gets fed. It's a volume story — watch the carries, not just the yards, for rushing props. Each back's warm (≥50°F) vs cold (≤35°F) averages.

Min 8 warm & 5 cold games, 2006–2024. Cold-weather teams naturally run more, so their backs skew high here — the volume swing is the signal for over/under on carries and rush yards.

When the quarterback throws for less, the yards come out of someone's receiving line. Each pass-catcher's average receiving yards in calm vs windy games — the WR/TE prop read.

A single windy game costs yards; a career spent in the wind costs a stat line. Estimated lifetime yards a player left on the field in their windy (≥15 mph) games — measured against their own calm-weather rate. It's the weather signal, filtered all the way down to career totals.

Estimated: (a player's calm per-game average − windy average) × their windy games. It counts only their windiest games (≥15 mph), so a full "if every game were calm" figure would be larger. Directional — windy games skew toward road trips and tougher defenses.