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Liberty at James Madison

Week 1 · September 5, 2026 · every hour, the forecast is re-scored and the record kept.

Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 PM EDTESPNU
JMU -6 · O/U 50.5
Kalshi total 50.9 · JMU win 68% 63k vol
Bridgeforth StadiumHarrisonburg, VA

Live Conditions

measured at the nearest station while the game is on

Live station conditions appear here around kickoff, refreshed every few minutes during the game.

The Forecast at Kickoff

scored by the same engine as every game since 2001
WFI 8range 0–21negligible

Precipitation-driven impact — 5 mph wind, gusts 11, 81°F, rain 0.02 in/hr.

Wind0
Precip8
Cold0
Heat0
Temperature
82°F
Feels like
86°F
Wind
5 mph
Gusts
11 mph
Humidity
72%
Precip
0.02 in/hr
Rain chance
60% ≥0.1" 43% ≥0.25" 24%

3-km HRRR check at kickoff: 77°F · wind 8 mph — agrees with the blend.

NBM blend at the stadium point + NDFD forecaster precip

The Game Window, Hour by Hour

stadium point, local clock; kickoff row marked
LocalTempWind mphGustPrecip in/hr
10 am76°270.06
11 am78°390.03
12 pm80°4100.02
1 pm81°5110.01
2 pm82°5110.02
3 pm82°5110.01
4 pm81°5120.11
5 pm79°412

How the Forecast Has Moved

one immutable snapshot per lead — recorded, never revised
020408 days: WFI 05 days: WFI 33 days: WFI 148 h: WFI 724 h: WFI 612 h: WFI 56 h: WFI 63 h: WFI 88d5d3d48h24h12h6h3h
LeadWFITempWind mphPrecip in/hrTotal
8 days outWFI 084°5 g11dry52.5
5 days outWFI 382°6 g12dry52.5
3 days outWFI 182°6 g12dry50.5
48 h outWFI 782°6 g130.0150.5
24 h outWFI 684°5 g120.0150.5
12 h outWFI 583°5 g120.0150.5
6 h outWFI 682°5 g110.0150.5
3 h outWFI 882°5 g110.0250.5

The forecast moved 8 WFI points as kickoff neared. Snapshots are captured hourly and locked at each lead bucket; this record cannot be rewritten after the fact.

The Building

where this one is played
Venue
Bridgeforth Stadium
Location
Harrisonburg, VA
Elevation
1,310 ft
Roof
open air

Full point forecast — every element, hour by hour — at Forecast Points.

What Weather Like This Does to Scoring

FBS games 2001–2025, measured at the nearest station
Forecast bandGamesAvg points
negligible14,87855.1 ←
minor2,99953.2
notable47448.8
high2747.7