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Florida International at South Florida

Week 1 · September 5, 2026 · every hour, the forecast is re-scored and the record kept.

Sat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM EDTESPN+
USF -14.5 · O/U 51.5
Kalshi total 51.8 · USF win 84% 18k vol
Raymond James StadiumTampa, FL

Live Conditions

measured at the nearest station while the game is on

Live station conditions appear here around kickoff, refreshed every few minutes during the game.

The Forecast at Kickoff

scored by the same engine as every game since 2001
WFI 3range 0–9negligible

Benign conditions; weather is a non-factor.

Wind0
Precip1
Cold0
Heat2
Temperature
83°F
Feels like
92°F
Wind
3 mph
Gusts
9 mph
Humidity
78%
Precip
dry
Rain chance
9% ≥0.1" 3% ≥0.25" 1%

3-km HRRR check at kickoff: 84°F · wind 9 mph — 6 mph windier than the blend.

NBM blend at the stadium point + NDFD forecaster precip

The Game Window, Hour by Hour

stadium point, local clock; kickoff row marked
LocalTempWind mphGustPrecip in/hr
5 pm88°712
6 pm87°611
7 pm86°49
8 pm84°38
9 pm82°26
10 pm81°25
11 pm81°15
12 am80°15

How the Forecast Has Moved

one immutable snapshot per lead — recorded, never revised
020408 days: WFI 25 days: WFI 13 days: WFI 1048 h: WFI 624 h: WFI 312 h: WFI 38d5d3d48h24h12h
LeadWFITempWind mphPrecip in/hrTotal
8 days outWFI 283°3 g7dry53.5
5 days outWFI 182°2 g7dry52.5
3 days outWFI 1080°2 g60.0352.5
48 h outWFI 681°2 g50.0151.5
24 h outWFI 382°3 g8dry51.5
12 h outWFI 383°3 g9dry51.5

The forecast moved 9 WFI points as kickoff neared. Snapshots are captured hourly and locked at each lead bucket; this record cannot be rewritten after the fact.

The Building

where this one is played
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Location
Tampa, FL
Elevation
36 ft
Roof
open air

Full point forecast — every element, hour by hour — at Forecast Points.

What Weather Like This Does to Scoring

FBS games 2001–2025, measured at the nearest station
Forecast bandGamesAvg points
negligible14,87855.1 ←
minor2,99953.2
notable47448.8
high2747.7