By Thursday, the weather
had already signed its name.
Every forecast below is the National Blend of Models run that existed at
that moment — eight days out, five, three, two, one, and kickoff — reconstructed from
NOAA's public archive and scored through the same engine as everything on this site.
The right-hand column is what the nearest station then measured. No hindsight anywhere:
this is the information a bettor, a coach or a fan actually had, when they had it.
outdoor games
12
of Week 13's slate
impact band called 3 days out
8 of 12
Thursday's run already named the final band
the star
SF@CLE
high band locked Thursday · verified WFI 57
the miss
CIN@BAL
played at 29, never forecast above 13 — kept on the board
One row per outdoor game, roughest first. A ringed
chip already names the band the game ended up playing in — watch the ring arrive earlier
for harsh games than the market's Sunday-morning line moves assume.
| game | 8 daysSat | 5 daysTue | 3 daysThu | 2 daysFri | 1 daySat | kickoff | | played |
|---|
| SF @ CLESun · Huntington Bank Field | 18 | 21 | 44 | 52 | 51 | 56 | | 57 |
| BUF @ PITSun · Acrisure Stadium | 2 | 0 | 11 | 20 | 23 | 27 | | 39 |
| CHI @ PHIFri · Lincoln Financial Field | 4 | 13 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 16 | | 36 |
| CIN @ BALThu · M&T Bank Stadium | 0 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 7 | | 29 |
| LA @ CARSun · Bank of America Stadium | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | | 21 |
| NO @ MIASun · Hard Rock Stadium | 18 | 13 | 14 | 10 | 17 | 20 | | 16 |
| ATL @ NYJSun · MetLife Stadium | 4 | 4 | 14 | 17 | 20 | 20 | | 15 |
| DEN @ WASSun · Northwest Stadium | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 4 | | 15 |
| JAX @ TENSun · Nissan Stadium | 11 | 8 | 15 | 13 | 8 | 8 | | 10 |
| NYG @ NEMon · Gillette Stadium | 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 | — | | 9 |
| ARI @ TBSun · Raymond James Stadium | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | | 4 |
| MIN @ SEASun · Lumen Field | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 2 |
Chips are WFI, coloured by band
(0–19
20–39
40–59
60+) ·
a dark ring = this run already named the band the game was played in ·
"played" = the nearest station's observations over the game window. Column weekdays
are for the Sunday kicks; the Friday and Monday games run two days shifted.
⚠️ The one you could see from Thursday
SF @ CLE · Sunday Nov 30 · Huntington Bank Field
| 8 days | 5 days | 3 days | 2 days | 1 day | kickoff | observed |
|---|
| WFI | 18 | 21 | 44 | 52 | 51 | 56 | 57 |
| wind | 13 | 13.5 | 20 | 22.5 | 24.2 | 25.2 | 23 |
| gust | 18 | 20 | 28 | 32 | 33 | 35 | 45.9 |
| precip in/hr | — | — | 0.01 | 0.01 | — | — | 0 |
At eight days the blend hinted (18). At five it held (21). At three days — the Thursday run — it jumped to 44, and by Friday it said 52: a high-band game, locked. It verified at 57, one of the roughest games of the season. The market read the same public forecast: the total closed at a skeletal 35.5. The edge was never Sunday — it was whoever moved Thursday.
final 26–8 · total 34 vs a closing 35.5 → UNDER — played at 32°F · wind 23 g45.9 · WFI 57
☀️ Pristine, locked by midweek
ARI @ TB · Sunday Nov 30 · Raymond James Stadium
| 8 days | 5 days | 3 days | 2 days | 1 day | kickoff | observed |
|---|
| WFI | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| wind | 9 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5.8 | 6 | 3.8 |
| gust | 15 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 19.7 |
| precip in/hr | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0 |
The other pole, and just as much information: from Wednesday on the blend never wavered from calm, dry, negligible — and that is exactly the game Tampa got. A total you could trust the football on, days early.
final 17–20 · total 37 vs a closing 44.5 → UNDER — played at 84°F · wind 3.8 g19.7 · WFI 4
📈 The creep
BUF @ PIT · Sunday Nov 30 · Acrisure Stadium
| 8 days | 5 days | 3 days | 2 days | 1 day | kickoff | observed |
|---|
| WFI | 2 | 0 | 11 | 20 | 23 | 27 | 39 |
| wind | 6 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 12.7 | 15.3 |
| gust | 12 | 11 | 17 | 20 | 23 | 24 | 30.9 |
| precip in/hr | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0 |
Direction right, magnitude late: 2 at eight days, 11 on Thursday, 20 on Friday, 27 at kickoff — and the stations scored it 39. The blend's known calm bias at range (−6 WFI at five-plus days) is why an early harsh signal deserves more weight than an early calm one.
final 26–7 · total 33 vs a closing 44.5 → UNDER — played at 31.7°F · wind 15.3 g30.9 · WFI 39
❌ The one that got away
CIN @ BAL · Thursday Nov 27 · M&T Bank Stadium
| 8 days | 5 days | 3 days | 2 days | 1 day | kickoff | observed |
|---|
| WFI | 0 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 29 |
| wind | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 15.3 |
| gust | 10 | 13 | 16 | 18 | 15 | 15 | 24.2 |
| precip in/hr | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0 |
Kept, not hidden: Baltimore played at an observed 29 and the forecast never said more than 13 at any lead. A wind band the blend smoothed over. This is why the page shows the whole board and not just the wins.
final 32–14 · total 46 vs a closing 52.5 → UNDER — played at 35.3°F · wind 15.3 g24.2 · WFI 29
How early is early enough?
The whole 2025 season, 277 verified
re-forecasts: skill by lead. The jump lives at three days — rough-game catch rate goes
from 11.5% five days out to 38.6% on Thursday — and the bias is one-sided: at
range the blend runs calm (−6 WFI), so an early harsh signal is worth more than
an early quiet one.
| lead | WFI MAE | band hit |
rough caught | temp MAE | wind MAE |
|---|
| 8 days out | 7.6 | 81.6% | 15.8% | 5.7° | 4.0 |
| 5 days out | 6.8 | 81.4% | 11.5% | 3.8° | 3.4 |
| 3 days out | 5.4 | 84.4% | 38.6% | 2.9° | 3.1 |
| 2 days out | 5.3 | 84.8% | 43.9% | 2.6° | 3.0 |
| 1 day out | 5.0 | 84.5% | 47.4% | 2.2° | 2.9 |
Method: forecasts re-read from the
noaa-nbm-pds Cloud-Optimised GeoTIFF archive — for each lead, the newest run
published by that moment (allowing two hours for dissemination), sampled at the stadium
over the same three-hour kickoff window and scored by the same
WFI engine as the
live boards. Verification is the nearest qualifying ASOS station, the archive's
station grade. Closing totals via nflverse. The 2026 season records this evolution
live — one snapshot per lead, never revised — on the
Weather vs Markets scorecard,
which is the prospective version of this page.
