This replay is the reanalysis truth — the weather that actually happened, hour by hour. Rarity tells you how unusual it was for that stadium (a December freeze in Cleveland is routine; a September gale is not). The next layer — coming with our forecast archive — overlays the NBM/HRRR forecast that was on the wire days before kickoff, so you can see exactly how much of it was knowable, and how much was a genuine surprise.