Our historical work shows the sportsbook total goes under 56.1% of the time (202 games at WFI 40+, against a 52.4% breakeven) in high-impact weather — the total is set too high more often than not. The obvious next question: do the human prediction markets — where thousands of traders price outcomes in real time — correct that mistake, or repeat it? If they repeat it, that's weather alpha.
Three Questions
Does weather move the human markets?
When the WFI spikes, do Kalshi/Polymarket totals and props drift the way the weather implies — or do the crowds ignore it like the books?
Do the humans beat Vegas?
Prediction markets settle to truth. In weather-affected games, do they land closer to the result than the closing Vegas line — on totals and on props?
Is there weather alpha?
If the WFI foresees a shift the market hasn't priced, a settled contract makes that testable to the penny. We'll publish the running scorecard.
The Weather-Sensitive Markets
The contracts we'll track, ranked by how much the weather should move them. Kalshi runs the ones that matter — game totals, field goals, and yardage props.
The Method
For each in-season game we already publish a forecast WFI. The study adds one step: capture the human-market price at kickoff, then compare three numbers once the game settles —
WFI-implied
What our historical relationship says the total/prop should do at this WFI (e.g. −2.9 pts on the total at WFI ≥ 40).
Market-implied
What Kalshi/Polymarket priced at kickoff (the crowd's probability).
The result
The settled outcome. Alpha = when WFI-implied and result agree, and the market didn't.