How It Ended
the settlement the forecast record is graded againstFinal
San José State 27, Eastern Michigan 21
Total
48 · Under
Observed WFI
WFI 0URMA analysis at the stadium cell (0.5 mi)
Observed conditions
75°F · wind 2 g6 mph · dry
The Forecast Replay
what you could have known, and when — no hindsight, then the verdict- First recorded, 8 days out (Thu): WFI 5 (negligible) — 78°F, wind 7 g13 mph, dry. Total posted at 53.5.
- 5 days out (Sun): WFI 5 → 2; the total moved 53.5 → 54.5.
- 3 days out (Tue): the total moved 54.5 → 56.5.
- Held steady to 24 h out (Thu).
- 12 h out (Fri): rain enters the forecast (0.01 in/hr).
- 6 h out (Fri): WFI 6 → 17; the total moved 56.5 → 55.5.
- 3 h out (Fri): the total moved 55.5 → 54.5.
- Measured: WFI 0 (the analysis at the stadium cell). Even the final forecast said 15 — a miss of 15 points; this one the forecast never fully caught.
| Lead | WFI | Temp | Wind mph | Precip in/hr | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 days out | WFI 5 | 78° | 7 g13 | dry | 53.5 |
| 5 days out | WFI 2 | 76° | 6 g10 | dry | 54.5 |
| 3 days out | WFI 4 | 77° | 4 g7 | 0.01 | 56.5 |
| 48 h out | WFI 2 | 76° | 4 g8 | dry | 56.5 |
| 24 h out | WFI 4 | 76° | 4 g9 | dry | 56.5 |
| 12 h out | WFI 6 | 76° | 4 g9 | 0.01 | 56.5 |
| 6 h out | WFI 17 | 76° | 5 g9 | 0.09 | 55.5 |
| 3 h out | WFI 15 | 76° | 5 g9 | 0.07 | 54.5 |
Snapshots are captured hourly and locked at each lead bucket (8 days out through kickoff); the record cannot be rewritten after the fact, which is what makes the replay honest.
The Building
where this one is playedVenue
Rynearson Stadium
Location
Ypsilanti, MI
Elevation
791 ft
Roof
open air
Full point forecast — every element, hour by hour — at Forecast Points.