2026 Outlook

Before a single snap, we can already see which teams the weather is set up to punish. We lay each team's 2026 schedule over 27 seasons (1999–2025) of Weather Football Index history at every host stadium — by season phase, so a December trip to Buffalo counts for far more than a September one. The result is a Weather Exposure Index (0–100): how much the weather is likely to shape a team's season. Dome and retractable-roof hosts score near zero and fall out naturally; cold, open, windy venues rise to the top. Tap any team for its full slate, roughest games, and projected starting quarterback.

Exposure = the average expected WFI across games with venue coverage, indexed to 0–100 — a league-relative measure (sheltered → most exposed), so a team can lead the league in exposure while every single game on its slate still projects as a negligible or minor weather game. Outdoor = games at open-air venues (where weather is truly in play). Rough = games whose climatological expectation reaches the minor-impact band or higher. Peak Game = the single roughest game on the slate by historical expectation. Quarterbacks are projected Week-1 starters from the nflverse depth chart (as dated above) and will change through camp and the season; wind tags come from each QB's own career calm-vs-windy passing split where we have a meaningful sample. This is principally climatology, with live game forecasts replacing it as coverage arrives. International dates use exact HRES point forecasts inside fifteen days, with GDPS as a visible fallback; they remain explicitly unrated until a complete forecast reaches kickoff.