The kicking game is the cleanest weather signal in football. Two things happen as the wind rises: accuracy falls off at distance, and coaches stop attempting the long ones — so a chunk of the effect hides in the kicks that are never tried. Here's the full picture, 2006-2024 · 13,581 attempts.
FG% by Distance & Wind
the makeable-range grid| Under 30 yds | 30–39 yds | 40–49 yds | 50+ yds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calm (0–8) | 97.4% n=1714 | 91.7% n=1941 | 77.1% n=1981 | 61.2% n=952 |
| Breezy (8–15) | 97.5% n=1458 | 88.3% n=1577 | 75.3% n=1610 | 58.9% n=717 |
| Windy (15–22) | 95.7% n=376 | 87.9% n=438 | 70.4% n=419 | 57.8% n=173 |
| Gale (22+) | 96.5% n=57 | 87.5% n=88 | 76.3% n=59 | 61.9% n=21 |
Cells shaded green (accurate) → red (miss-prone). The 40+ columns are where wind bites; small samples (n) shown.
Coaches Get Conservative
50+ yard attempt shareThe tell isn't just makes — it's attempts. As the wind rises, the share of kicks tried from 50+ collapses and the average attempt moves closer. The long-FG prop dries up before a ball is even snapped.
Cold Kills the Long Ball
College: Younger Legs, Bigger Swings
FBS · 2014-2021 · 16,695 attemptsCollege kickers are far less reliable than the NFL's, so the weather bites deeper. On 50+ yard tries, college makes just 44.9% in calm air — the pros hit 61% — and it falls off a cliff in wind. The same grid, for the college game:
| Under 30 yds | 30–39 yds | 40–49 yds | 50+ yds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calm (0–8) | 89.7% n=3967 | 75.4% n=4186 | 59.5% n=3587 | 44.9% n=840 |
| Breezy (8–15) | 89.1% n=1252 | 73.0% n=1229 | 58.9% n=1131 | 43.4% n=226 |
| Windy (15–22) | 91.7% n=84 | 77.1% n=83 | 50.0% n=60 | 35.0% n=20 |
| Gale (22+) | — n=6 | — n=3 | — n=4 | — n=0 |
FBS field goals joined to per-game ERA5-Land reanalysis weather at the venue. Compare the reds here to the NFL grid above — college is a shade of red darker at every distance.
What it means for bettors
Fewer long attempts + lower accuracy = fewer field-goal points in wind and cold, feeding the under. For kicker props it's a double hit: made-FG and total-points overs get harder, and longest-FG lines should shrink with the wind. The gale-force FG% that looks "normal" is a mirage — it only holds because the hard kicks aren't attempted.
NFL play-by-play (nflverse), outdoor games. College kicking (younger legs, bigger weather swings) is next, via cfbfastR + our college reanalysis.