The kicking game is the cleanest weather signal in football. Two things happen as the wind rises: accuracy falls off at distance, and coaches stop attempting the long ones — so a chunk of the effect hides in the kicks that are never tried. Here's the full picture, .

Cells shaded green (accurate) → red (miss-prone). The 40+ columns are where wind bites; small samples (n) shown.

The tell isn't just makes — it's attempts. As the wind rises, the share of kicks tried from 50+ collapses and the average attempt moves closer. The long-FG prop dries up before a ball is even snapped.

College kickers are far less reliable than the NFL's, so the weather bites deeper. On 50+ yard tries, college makes just — in calm air — the pros hit 61% — and it falls off a cliff in wind. The same grid, for the college game:

FBS field goals joined to per-game ERA5-Land reanalysis weather at the venue. Compare the reds here to the NFL grid above — college is a shade of red darker at every distance.

Fewer long attempts + lower accuracy = fewer field-goal points in wind and cold, feeding the under. For kicker props it's a double hit: made-FG and total-points overs get harder, and longest-FG lines should shrink with the wind. The gale-force FG% that looks "normal" is a mirage — it only holds because the hard kicks aren't attempted.

NFL play-by-play (nflverse), outdoor games. College kicking (younger legs, bigger weather swings) is next, via cfbfastR + our college reanalysis.