UAlbanyALB17
How It Ended
the settlement the forecast record is graded againstFinal
UAlbany 17, Buffalo 21
Total
38 · Under
Observed WFI
WFI 30URMA analysis at the stadium cell (1 mi)
Observed conditions
73°F · wind 4 g14 mph · rain 0.323 in/hr
The Forecast Replay
what you could have known, and when — no hindsight, then the verdict- First recorded, 8 days out (Wed): WFI 1 (negligible) — 73°F, wind 5 g8 mph, dry. Total posted at 48.5.
- Held steady to 3 days out (Mon).
- 48 h out (Tue): WFI 1 → 4.
- Held steady to 24 h out (Wed).
- 12 h out (Thu): rain enters the forecast (0.011 in/hr).
- Held steady to 6 h out (Thu).
- 3 h out (Thu): the total moved 48.5 → 47.5.
- Measured: WFI 30 (the analysis at the stadium cell). Even the final forecast said 6 — a miss of 24 points; this one the forecast never fully caught.
| Lead | WFI | Temp | Wind mph | Precip in/hr | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 days out | WFI 1 | 73° | 5 g8 | dry | 48.5 |
| 5 days out | WFI 0 | 74° | 5 g8 | dry | 48.5 |
| 3 days out | WFI 0 | 74° | 4 g5 | dry | 48.5 |
| 48 h out | WFI 4 | 74° | 5 g8 | dry | 48.5 |
| 24 h out | WFI 4 | 74° | 5 g8 | 0.01 | 48.5 |
| 12 h out | WFI 6 | 74° | 5 g9 | 0.01 | 48.5 |
| 6 h out | WFI 8 | 75° | 4 g8 | 0.02 | 48.5 |
| 3 h out | WFI 6 | 75° | 4 g8 | 0.01 | 47.5 |
Snapshots are captured hourly and locked at each lead bucket (8 days out through kickoff); the record cannot be rewritten after the fact, which is what makes the replay honest.
The Building
where this one is playedVenue
Broadview Stadium
Location
Buffalo, NY
Elevation
596 ft
Roof
open air
Full point forecast — every element, hour by hour — at Forecast Points.