How It Ended
the settlement the forecast record is graded againstFinal
UAB 23, Illinois 42
Total
65 · Over
Observed WFI
WFI 0URMA analysis at the stadium cell (0.2 mi)
Observed conditions
82°F · wind 4 g7 mph · dry
The Forecast Replay
what you could have known, and when — no hindsight, then the verdict- First recorded, 8 days out (Thu): WFI 0 (negligible) — 81°F, wind 5 g7 mph, dry. Total posted at 56.5.
- 5 days out (Sun): 4° warmer; the total moved 56.5 → 55.5.
- Held steady to 3 days out (Tue).
- 48 h out (Wed): 6° cooler; the total moved 55.5 → 54.5.
- Held steady to 6 h out (Thu).
- 3 h out (Thu): the total moved 54.5 → 53.5.
- Measured: WFI 0 (the analysis at the stadium cell). The very first snapshot, 8 days out (Thu), was already within 5 points — this one was knowable a week out.
| Lead | WFI | Temp | Wind mph | Precip in/hr | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 days out | WFI 0 | 81° | 5 g7 | dry | 56.5 |
| 5 days out | WFI 1 | 85° | 4 g6 | dry | 55.5 |
| 3 days out | WFI 3 | 86° | 2 g4 | dry | 55.5 |
| 48 h out | WFI 0 | 80° | 4 g6 | dry | 54.5 |
| 24 h out | WFI 0 | 81° | 3 g6 | dry | 54.5 |
| 12 h out | WFI 0 | 80° | 4 g7 | dry | 54.5 |
| 6 h out | WFI 0 | 82° | 4 g7 | dry | 54.5 |
| 3 h out | WFI 0 | 82° | 4 g7 | dry | 53.5 |
Snapshots are captured hourly and locked at each lead bucket (8 days out through kickoff); the record cannot be rewritten after the fact, which is what makes the replay honest.
The Building
where this one is playedVenue
Gies Memorial Stadium
Location
Champaign, IL
Elevation
732 ft
Roof
open air
Full point forecast — every element, hour by hour — at Forecast Points.