How It Ended
the settlement the forecast record is graded againstFinal
Toledo 20, Michigan State 30
Total
50 · Over
Observed WFI
WFI 0URMA analysis at the stadium cell (0.5 mi)
Observed conditions
73°F · wind 1 g6 mph · dry
The Forecast Replay
what you could have known, and when — no hindsight, then the verdict- First recorded, 8 days out (Fri): WFI 6 (negligible) — 77°F, wind 7 g17 mph, dry. Total posted at 49.5.
- 5 days out (Mon): WFI 6 → 0.
- 3 days out (Wed): the total moved 49.5 → 47.5.
- 48 h out (Thu): the total moved 47.5 → 46.5.
- 24 h out (Fri): WFI 0 → 3.
- Held steady to 12 h out (Fri).
- 6 h out (Fri): WFI 3 → 0; the total moved 46.5 → 48.5.
- 3 h out (Fri): WFI 0 → 3.
- Measured: WFI 0 (the analysis at the stadium cell). From 5 days out (Mon) the forecast never strayed more than 5 points from what was measured — knowable 5 days before kickoff.
| Lead | WFI | Temp | Wind mph | Precip in/hr | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 days out | WFI 6 | 77° | 7 g17 | dry | 49.5 |
| 5 days out | WFI 0 | 75° | 5 g13 | dry | 49.5 |
| 3 days out | WFI 0 | 76° | 4 g12 | dry | 47.5 |
| 48 h out | WFI 0 | 74° | 3 g11 | dry | 46.5 |
| 24 h out | WFI 3 | 73° | 3 g11 | dry | 46.5 |
| 12 h out | WFI 3 | 72° | 3 g10 | dry | 46.5 |
| 6 h out | WFI 0 | 73° | 3 g11 | dry | 48.5 |
| 3 h out | WFI 3 | 73° | 3 g11 | dry | 48.5 |
Snapshots are captured hourly and locked at each lead bucket (8 days out through kickoff); the record cannot be rewritten after the fact, which is what makes the replay honest.
The Building
where this one is playedVenue
Spartan Stadium
Location
East Lansing, MI
Elevation
836 ft
Roof
open air
Full point forecast — every element, hour by hour — at Forecast Points.