How It Ended
the settlement the forecast record is graded againstFinal
Hawai'i 27, Stanford 37
Total
64 · Over
Observed WFI
WFI 22measured at PAO
Observed conditions
74°F · wind 15 g22 mph · dry
The Forecast Replay
what you could have known, and when — no hindsight, then the verdict- First recorded, 8 days out (Fri): WFI 10 (negligible) — 77°F, wind 9 g16 mph, dry. Total posted at 49.5.
- 5 days out (Mon): the total moved 49.5 → 48.5.
- Held essentially steady from there to 3 h out (Sat).
- Measured: WFI 22 (station PAO). Even the final forecast said 11 — a miss of 11 points; this one the forecast never fully caught.
| Lead | WFI | Temp | Wind mph | Precip in/hr | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 days out | WFI 10 | 77° | 9 g16 | — | 49.5 |
| 5 days out | WFI 12 | 74° | 10 g17 | dry | 48.5 |
| 3 days out | WFI 13 | 73° | 11 g17 | dry | 48.5 |
| 48 h out | WFI 14 | 73° | 11 g17 | dry | 48.5 |
| 24 h out | WFI 13 | 71° | 11 g18 | dry | 48.5 |
| 12 h out | WFI 12 | 71° | 10 g18 | dry | 48.5 |
| 6 h out | WFI 11 | 71° | 10 g18 | dry | 48.5 |
| 3 h out | WFI 11 | 71° | 10 g18 | dry | 48.5 |
Snapshots are captured hourly and locked at each lead bucket (8 days out through kickoff); the record cannot be rewritten after the fact, which is what makes the replay honest.
The Building
where this one is playedVenue
Stanford Stadium
Location
Stanford, CA
Elevation
60 ft
Roof
open air
Full point forecast — every element, hour by hour — at Forecast Points.