How It Ended
the settlement the forecast record is graded againstFinal
NC State 8, Virginia 34
Total
42 · Under
Observed WFI
WFI 4measured at CHO
Observed conditions
80°F · wind 7 g10 mph · dry
The Forecast Replay
what you could have known, and when — no hindsight, then the verdict- First recorded, 8 days out (Fri): WFI 2 (negligible) — 86°F, wind 3 g8 mph, dry. Total posted at 53.5.
- Held steady to 5 days out (Mon).
- 3 days out (Wed): the total moved 53.5 → 52.5.
- Held steady to 48 h out (Thu).
- 24 h out (Fri): the total moved 52.5 → 51.5.
- Held essentially steady from there to 3 h out (Sat).
- Measured: WFI 4 (station CHO). The very first snapshot, 8 days out (Fri), was already within 5 points — this one was knowable a week out.
| Lead | WFI | Temp | Wind mph | Precip in/hr | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 days out | WFI 2 | 86° | 3 g8 | — | 53.5 |
| 5 days out | WFI 1 | 84° | 4 g8 | dry | 53.5 |
| 3 days out | WFI 1 | 84° | 4 g8 | dry | 52.5 |
| 48 h out | WFI 0 | 83° | 4 g8 | dry | 52.5 |
| 24 h out | WFI 0 | 84° | 4 g9 | dry | 51.5 |
| 12 h out | WFI 0 | 83° | 5 g10 | dry | 51.5 |
| 6 h out | WFI 0 | 84° | 5 g9 | dry | 51.5 |
| 3 h out | WFI 0 | 84° | 5 g9 | dry | 51.5 |
Snapshots are captured hourly and locked at each lead bucket (8 days out through kickoff); the record cannot be rewritten after the fact, which is what makes the replay honest.
The Building
where this one is playedVenue
Scott Stadium
Location
Charlottesville, VA
Elevation
559 ft
Roof
open air
Full point forecast — every element, hour by hour — at Forecast Points.