MerrimackMRMK7
DelawareDEL42
How It Ended
the settlement the forecast record is graded againstFinal
Merrimack 7, Delaware 42
Total
49 · Under
Observed WFI
WFI 0URMA analysis at the stadium cell (0.8 mi)
Observed conditions
78°F · wind 2 g8 mph · dry
The Forecast Replay
what you could have known, and when — no hindsight, then the verdict- First recorded, 8 days out (Wed): WFI 8 (negligible) — 78°F, wind 3 g6 mph, rain 0.02 in/hr. Total posted at 55.5.
- 5 days out (Sat): WFI 8 → 0; the rain washes out of the forecast.
- Held steady to 3 days out (Mon).
- 48 h out (Tue): WFI 0 → 8; rain enters the forecast (0.02 in/hr).
- 24 h out (Wed): WFI 8 → 3; the rain washes out of the forecast.
- 12 h out (Thu): WFI 3 → 7; rain enters the forecast (0.014 in/hr).
- 6 h out (Thu): the total moved 55.5 → 56.5.
- Held essentially steady from there to 3 h out (Thu).
- Measured: WFI 0 (the analysis at the stadium cell). Even the final forecast said 6 — a miss of 6 points; this one the forecast never fully caught.
| Lead | WFI | Temp | Wind mph | Precip in/hr | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 days out | WFI 8 | 78° | 3 g6 | 0.02 | 55.5 |
| 5 days out | WFI 0 | 79° | 3 g6 | dry | 55.5 |
| 3 days out | WFI 0 | 81° | 4 g8 | dry | 55.5 |
| 48 h out | WFI 8 | 80° | 3 g6 | 0.02 | 55.5 |
| 24 h out | WFI 3 | 81° | 2 g6 | dry | 55.5 |
| 12 h out | WFI 7 | 80° | 3 g6 | 0.01 | 55.5 |
| 6 h out | WFI 7 | 80° | 2 g6 | 0.01 | 56.5 |
| 3 h out | WFI 6 | 80° | 2 g6 | 0.01 | 56.5 |
Snapshots are captured hourly and locked at each lead bucket (8 days out through kickoff); the record cannot be rewritten after the fact, which is what makes the replay honest.
The Building
where this one is playedVenue
Delaware Stadium
Location
Newark, DE
Elevation
94 ft
Roof
open air
Full point forecast — every element, hour by hour — at Forecast Points.